Drug-resistant tuberculosis set to increase in four high burden countries

By 2040, a third of tuberculosis cases in Russia are predicted to be drug-resistant, compared with one in ten in India and the Philippines, and one in 20 in South Africa, suggest researchers. The changing nature of disease means that infections with drug-resistant tuberculosis will be increasingly caused by person-to-person infection, rather than non-resistant strains acquiring resistance.
The study is based on a mathematical model that forecasts how tuberculosis is likely to progress in the four most-affected countries. It uses data from WHO and surveys estimating the number of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases to predict how many cases of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis would develop during 2000 and 2040. It also estimates how many of these would be a result of non-resistant strains acquiring resistance during treatment.
The model estimates that cases of both forms of drug-resistant disease will increase, suggesting that almost a third of tuberculosis cases in Russia (32.5%) would be multidrug-resistant by 2040, as well as 12.4% of tuberculosis cases in India, 8.9% in the Philippines, and 5.7% in South Africa. This compares to almost a quarter of cases (24.8%) in Russia, 7.9% in India, 6% in the Philippines, and 2.5% in South Africa in 2000. In addition, almost one in ten cases of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in each of the four countries were expected to be extensively drug-resistant by 2040.
The study authors propose that increased spread from person to person will be responsible for the growing number of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases.
Source : www.sciencedaily.com      2017/5/22 08:52

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